Great Lakes / Eastern Midwest (PADD 2) Energy Flows · FY2000–2026 · build 264
WI · MI · IL · IN · OH · KY — the Lakes & the Refining Belt
FY2024
scrub the year
Largest counties · dominant fuel colors the dot · gallons modeled from county fuel data × SEDS mix · constant unless demand tells a story
⚠ Exposure
✕
FY2000FY2026
Canada’s customer — heavy Canadian crude crosses in by Enbridge to the largest inland refining row in the country, which makes the fuel and feeds Chicago, Detroit and the Ohio cities.
Blue trapezoid = crude field — the bloc’s only in-region crude is the Utica super-light condensate window (E Ohio).
Refinery (distillation towers) — the inland refining row. Hover BP Whiting for what “largest inland” means.
Blue line = crude in motion.
Maple leaf = Canadian crude in.
Amber circle (⌂) = metro product demand. The amber ribbons are the refinery→metro product feeds.
Product IN (amber dashed, up from the south) = the bloc burns a touch more than it refines, so the deficit arrives as finished product from PADD 3 / the Gulf.
CRUDE is the map’s base/default lens. The bloc is the Great Lakes / Eastern Midwest refining belt (IL·IN·OH·MI·WI·KY, PADD 2 east) — the Gulf’s mirror: it receives and refines instead of producing and exporting. Canadian heavy crude in via the Enbridge Mainline / Lakehead and Line 5 → the inland refinery row → product out, with a small net deficit pulled up from PADD 3. Sourced (EIA Refinery Capacity Report; EIA SEDS): refinery atmospheric-distillation capacities (kb/d) & state product demand; Ohio crude (Utica) production. Glyph sizing: metro product-demand circle area ∝ all-products demand (EIA SEDS state total apportioned by metro population; modeled split); crude-field area ∝ output. Modeled: pipe-flow splits, refinery→metro shares, the metro split of state demand, and the WCS−WTI differential (CURVES window). Geography is a stylized flatten — adjacencies & directions are honest, not to scale. Knowledge cutoff Jan 2026.
Fuel on site: none — hover any gas plant for the full comparison with coal and nuclear.
Teal trapezoid = gas field — Utica / Point Pleasant (E Ohio, the shale giant, ~6 Bcf/d) and the mature, declining Antrim (N Michigan); area ∝ Bcf/d.
Teal flame = the refinery gas burn — the belt’s refineries burn gas for process heat and the hydrogen (SMR) that cleans the fuel.
Teal line = dry gas in motion.
Dashed circles = gas consumption, by state & use — each state’s demand as ⚡ power, ⌂ cities (res+comm heat), ⚙ industry.
Bottom bubbles = gas production by state (Bcf/d), year-driven — watch Ohio (Utica) erupt after 2012 to dwarf the thin, declining Michigan (Antrim) stream as the slider runs.
ⓘ Natural-gas — modeling & sources
Consumption circles: area ∝ load (EIA-anchored totals, modeled split). The refinery gas burn is the separate teal flame. — Ohio Utica production is real (EIA dnav, 2020–25: 2.39→2.10 Tcf/yr ≈ 6.55→5.75 Bcf/d). State consumption totals are EIA-anchored (IL 1.07, MI 1.05, IN 0.88, KY 0.35 Tcf/yr 2023; OH/WI EIA-consistent); sector splits and the year trajectory are modeled. The belt makes ~6 and burns ~13 Bcf/d, a net import of ~7 — but Ohio alone is a heavyweight exporter, its surplus leaving west/east/NW while the rest import Gulf & Canadian gas. Import corridors (teal line + arrow, junction door at the boundary) carry that gas in to the load it serves: Gulf gas via ANR/NGPL → Chicago and Texas Gas → IN/KY; W. Canada via Great Lakes GT → Michigan and Alliance → Chicago. Henry Hub = real EIA annual averages; Chicago citygate basis anchored/disclosed. Geography — routes & placements approximate. Knowledge cutoff Jan 2026.
Fuel on site: 60–90 days — hover any coal plant for the full comparison with gas and nuclear.
Ember box = coal plant still burning.
Gray + struck = gone dark on its real closure year — Rush Island, MO (Ameren, court-ordered Clean Air Act retirement, 2024).
Bottom bubbles = coal-fired generation by state (TWh/yr), each state its own warm tint; area ∝ TWh, shared ceiling. Watch the long decline as the slider runs.
The stall — a capacity counter (MW of bloc coal still operating) that steps down as plants retire.
ⓘ Coal — modeling & sources
Plant identities & closure years from utility/EPA filings; generation TWh is real EIA (Form EIA-923, fuel COW all-coal, all sectors, FY2004–2024; 2001–03 held at 2004; 2025–26 held at 2024). Unit counts are EIA-860 operating-generator-capacity, Dec 2025, generator-level. Curated by capacity, one warm tint per state. Ported: emberNode (Rocky), drawCoalGen state-color (Gulf), coalRail + railSeam (Southeast). Receipts by origin: EIA coal shipments by-mine-by-plant, FY2023.
LEFT pie = generation by fuel (coal, gas, wind, hydro, solar, nuclear, oil, other) — EIA annual generation by state, FY2000–2024
RIGHT pie = retail sales by sector (residential, commercial, industrial, transport) — EIA sales, annual to 2020 spliced with EIA-861M monthly
Pie area ∝ TWh on one shared ceiling (203 TWh, Illinois FY2013), so states and years compare directly. A dashed ring = no published figures for that year, not zero.
Scrub the year to see the transition: bloc coal falls 534 → 189 TWh since FY2000 while gas, wind and solar rise 23 → 319 — and nuclear barely moves (137 → 154).
Sales exclude direct use and line losses, so "used" understates what a state actually consumes. Pumped storage is excluded from generation — Ludington is a net consumer, not a fuel.
Green silo cluster = ethanol producer. The outline is the state’s nameplate capacity (EIA plant listing, Jan 1 2025); the green fill is the year’s real production against it — the silo fills as the state builds out. Illinois (14 plants) and Indiana (15) lead; Kentucky has none.
Gold arrows = grain in — corn trucked from the surrounding county to the plant (the local feedstock).
Green on rose rail = ethanol out — denatured ethanol moves by rail (also truck & barge), never product pipeline (it corrodes steel and absorbs water). East to the coast; south to the Gulf for export.
Amber tub + green flecks = E10 rack — ethanol splash-blended into gasoline at the bulk terminal rack, not in pipeline. Amber = the gasoline, green = the ~10% ethanol. This is the bloc’s second job — the Plains only make it; the belt also burns it. AFDC / EIA.
Green barge = denatured ethanol loading on the Illinois River (Marquis Hennepin sits on it) and running down the Mississippi — this map’s western boundary — to the Gulf. Real EIA PADD 2 → PADD 3 volumes.
ⓘ Ethanol data & sources
Every ethanol number on this lens is real EIA — none is modeled.Per-state production (silo fill + volume + the bloc bar): EIA SEDS ENPRP, fuel ethanol production incl. denaturant, FY2000–2024 (2025–26 held at 2024). Blended-in (the E10 bar + the surplus window): EIA SEDS ENTCP. Gasoline denominator (the blend %): EIA SEDS MGTCP. Nameplate capacity (silo outlines): EIA U.S. Fuel Ethanol Plant Production Capacity as of Jan 1 2025, the plant-level listing — 49 plants, 5.22 bn gal/yr. Exports: EIA EPOOXE, real 2010–2025. Barge: EIA Movements by Tanker & Barge between PAD Districts, fuel ethanol PADD 2 → PADD 3 — real annual and real monthly. Note the barge corridor is PADD-2-wide: both corn belts load it, and EIA does not split it by state, so the card reports the corridor, not a bloc share. Rack siting = the bloc’s largest gasoline markets (the metros this map already carries); blending-at-the-rack is AFDC/EIA. Knowledge cutoff Jan 2026.
Dam glyph = signature hydro on the bloc’s three water-power states: Kentucky (Wolf Creek / Lake Cumberland + Kentucky Dam on the Tennessee), Michigan (the Au Sable chain), Wisconsin (Wisconsin-River dams). Bottom bubbles = state hydro TWh/yr, year-scrubbed.
Pumped storage — Ludington, the bloc’s only battery: the water cycles between two pools and never leaves.
Hydro re-pointed from the inherited Missouri ladder to the Great Lakes bloc (KY/WI/MI; IL/IN/OH near-zero, dropped). Generation TWh is real EIA (Form EIA-923, fuel HYC conventional hydro, all sectors, FY2004–2024; pre-2004 held at 2004; 2025–26 held at 2024). Share % is hydro ÷ real EIA state total (Form EIA-923, fuel ALL). Knowledge cutoff Jan 2026.
Spinning turbine clusters = wind generation, sized by state output; the W→E streaks are the prevailing wind.
Generation TWh is real EIA (Form EIA-923, fuel WND, all sectors, FY2001–2024; pre-2001 ≈ 0; 2025–26 held at 2024). Illinois leads the bloc (a top-five U.S. wind state); Kentucky has no utility-scale wind (poor Appalachian resource). Share % is wind ÷ real EIA state total.
Solar panel array = utility-scale solar farm; small panels = rooftop solar. Both fade in as solar grows (~2014→).
Bottom bubbles = solar generation by state (TWh/yr); area ∝ TWh, shared ceiling, year-scrubbed. Right window = the summer match — solar peaks with the AC load.
Generation TWh is real EIA (Form EIA-923, fuel SUN, all sectors, FY2001–2024; pre-2014 ≈ 0; 2025–26 held at 2024). Near-zero a decade ago.
Containment dome (atom glowing inside) = operating reactor; sized by capacity, one dome per unit. The firm baseload that doesn’t watch the weather.
Fuel on site: 12–24 months — hover any reactor for the full comparison with coal and gas.
Struck dome = dark on the slider.
Bottom bubbles = nuclear generation by state (TWh/yr); area ∝ TWh, shared ceiling.
The firm floor (pinned, top-right) — nuclear holds flat (green) while demand swings (amber).
Nuclear pass-1 (Great Lakes). Capacities NRC/operator-anchored (net summer MW); plant identities, unit counts and closure/restart years from operator & NRC filings (Palisades restart and Kewaunee 2013 closure verified at build). Generation TWh is real EIA (Form EIA-923, fuel NUC, all sectors, FY2001–2024; 2025–26 held at 2024); the firm-floor trace is illustrative (disclosed on-card). Generation framing.